National indications the enthusiasm gap among Republican and Democratic voters is narrowing seem to be reflected in Wisconsin, a state that makes for an interesting case study given Gov. Scott Walker’s deliberate strategy of confronting the “blue wave” head on. As the Washington Examiner reported last month, Walker’s re-election campaign spent much of the spring transforming his canary-in-a-coalmine routine into a “major campaign strategy” that altered everything from call scripts to fundraising emails to direct mail.
It might be working.
A Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday found an unexpected double-digit increase in Republicans who say they’re very enthusiastic about voting in this year’s elections since March. That metric spiked by 7 percentage points among Democratic voters as well. But the GOP’s increase from 54 to 67 percent puts them much closer since March to the 71 percent of Democrats who say they’re very enthusiastic about voting. The poll’s margins of error were +/- 6.4 percentage points for the Democratic sample and 6.9 for the Republican.
A GOP strategist told the Washington Examiner last month that the governor’s strategy of acknowledging, rather than downplaying, the blue wave’s potential threat left “some Republicans” feeling “a little nervous.” Though a mixture of other factors could be driving it as well, the needle’s apparent movement in Wisconsin should mitigate some of those concerns. It could also potentially provide a model for GOP leaders in other states where the enthusiasm gap still poses a threat between now and November.
The Marquette poll found Walker leading against all of his potential Democratic opponents — and there are still ten of them in the primary, which won’t be decided until August. (It should be noted that Walker’s 48-44 lead was just within the +/- 4 percentage point margin of error against Tony Evers, who’s leading the Democratic field, according to the survey.) At 49-47 percent, the Marquette pollsters noted it’s “the first time since Oct. 23-26, 2014, that Walker’s approval has been higher than his disapproval in the Marquette Law School Poll.” His job approval among Republicans, according to the poll, stands at 83 percent.
The poll surveyed 800 registered voters from June 13-17.
