IRAN THREAT EXPLAINED: Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford revealed yesterday that he was the driving force behind the recent U.S. deployments to the Persian Gulf region, which he recommended after reviewing intelligence that indicated an ominous pattern in Iranian actions.
“We saw something that looked more like a campaign than individual threat,” Dunford said at an event at the Brookings Institution. The intelligence covered a wide area and indicated Iran and its proxies were preparing coordinated attacks. “It was the geographic span and the perception that that activity would try to be synchronized in time that caused us to look at that threat differently than 40 years of malign activity by the Iranians.”
“So malign activity and threats to our forces by the Iranians were not new,” Dunford said, “but a more widespread, almost campaign-like perspective for the Iranians was what we were dealing with.”
THE THREAT STREAMS CONVERGE: Dunford said he had been seeing worrisome things in the intelligence reports for weeks, but it all seemed to come together in the last week of April.
“I began to see more clearly things that I’ve been picking up on over a period of months,” he said. “I remember very clearly it was the 3rd of May, was on a Friday, and what was qualitatively different about the threat stream we had seen was it was multiple threat streams that were all perhaps coming together in time.”
ACTING ON AN ANOMALY: Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, speaking to reporters traveling with him to Jakarta, Indonesia, said Dunford came to him and made the case that what he was seeing was something very different. “This was an anomaly,” Shanahan said. “It was so credible that we moved back quickly. It was a matter of hours.”
BIG T, LITTLE T: Shananan said there were two types of threats. “Iranian activity in the region around their proxies, disruption in the Straits of Hormuz, ballistic missile programs, nuclear programs,” he said, “are the basis for the pressure campaign.” The more immediate threats are to U.S. forces in the region and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
“The response we’ve taken is a threat to the flow of energy and a threat to our men and women and our interests there in the region,” he said of the dual threats. “One with a big ‘T’ and one with a small ‘t,’ and the small ‘t’ is the energy flow and our people in the region. The broader threats are really what the maximum pressure campaign is addressing.”
‘NOBODY WANTS A WAR’: “When the president says he doesn’t want a war with Iran, I think that’s pretty clear, right?” said Shanahan, insisting that the deployments were defensive in nature, designed to increase force protection and send a strong signal of resolve to Iran. “I don’t think anyone wants a war with Iran. I don’t think you’ll find people in the National Security at present who wants a war with Iran. Nobody wants a war.”
Dunford, after consultations with U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Frank McKenzie, wanted reinforcements in four areas: increased surveillance and reconnaissance to monitor Iran’s activities, an engineering battalion to harden facilities, and in the event of an attack more air power and Patriot missile defenses. “That was the recommendation that the chairman made and I approved it.”
900 MORE TROOPS: In the end, the moves were modest but sent a big message. The total number of additional troops deployed to Saudi Arabia and Qatar was less than 1,000. “We didn’t really discuss a higher number,” said Shanahan. “I would make the argument it deterred attacks on our people in Iraq.”
Still, Shanahan said, “I would just say the threat remains.”
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Trump delivers the commencement address for the graduation and commissioning of the U.S. Air Force Academy’s Class of 2019 in Colorado Springs, Colo.. It will be livestreamed at www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events.
THE McCAIN ‘COVER-UP’: The Wall Street Journal broke the story yesterday that the White House wanted the Navy to keep guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain “out of sight” during President Trump’s visit to Japan, presumably because of the president’s animus toward the late senator.
The warship, which is undergoing repairs after a 2017 collision, could not be moved, but “a tarp was hung over the ship’s name ahead of the president’s trip, according to photos reviewed by the Journal, and sailors were directed to remove any coverings from the ship that bore its name.” The paper cited internal emails and a review of photographic evidence.
But before the president arrived to deliver remarks aboard the USS Wasp docked nearby, the cloaking maneuvers were countermanded by higher-ups.
“The name of USS John S. McCain was not obscured during the POTUS visit to Yokosuka on Memorial Day,” tweeted Rear Adm. Charlie Brown, the Navy’s brand-new chief of information, on a recently reactivated Twitter account. “The Navy is proud of that ship, its crew, its namesake and its heritage.”
TRUMP, SHANAHAN ISSUE DENIALS: Both President Trump and Secretary Shanahan deny any knowledge of the “cover-up.”
“I was not informed about anything having to do with the Navy Ship USS John S. McCain during my recent visit to Japan. Nevertheless, @FLOTUS and I loved being with our great Military Men and Women – what a spectacular job they do!” Trump tweeted.
“I would never dishonor the memory of a great American patriot like Senator McCain,” Shanahan told reporters traveling with him in Indonesia. “I also think it’s important — I’d never disrespect the young men and women that crew that ship. I’ve asked my chief of staff to look into the matter.”
The Pentagon issued a statement early this morning from Shanahan’s spokesman, Lt. Col. Joe Buccino: “Secretary Shanahan was not aware of the directive to move the USS John S McCain, nor was he aware of the concern precipitating the directive.”
‘IT MAKES MY GRIEF UNBEARABLE’: McCain’s daughter Meghan McCain blasted Trump on Twitter. “Trump is a child who will always be deeply threatened by the greatness of my dads incredible life. There is a lot of criticism of how much I speak about my dad, but nine months since he passed, Trump won’t let him RIP. So I have to stand up for him,” she tweeted. “It makes my grief unbearable.”
Back in March, Trump called Sen. McCain’s vote preserving the Affordable Care Act “disgraceful” and said “plus there are other things” he didn’t like about the late Arizona senator and war hero. “I was never a fan of John McCain, and I never will be,” Trump said.
RUSSIA NUKE TEST?: Defense Intelligence Agency director Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley dropped a bombshell at yesterday’s Hudson Institute event when he said Russia is likely conducting explosive nuclear tests in violation of an international arms treaty.
Ashley said Russia appears to be ignoring its commitments under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. “The United States believes that Russia is probably not adhering to the nuclear testing moratorium in a manner consistent with the zero-yield standard,” Ashley said.
Ashley said he suspects Russia is going beyond a zero-yield threshold as it upgrades its nuclear warheads. “If you go beyond a zero-yield, that gives you more a sense that your designs are viable,” he said.
But when pressed by a reporter about whether he was talking about the capacity for testing or actual testing, Ashey appeared to soften his accusation, saying, “I believe they have a capability to do that.”
The zero-yield standard prohibits all nuclear explosions “that produce a self-sustaining, supercritical chain reaction,” according to the Arms Control Association.
MOSCOW SCOFFS: Russia’s ambassador to the United States called Ashley’s allegation “a calculated attempt to undermine nuclear arms control,” according to Russian state television.
“The U.S. allegations … look like a well-planned and directed attack not only and not so much on Russia as on the arms control regime, and on the entire architecture for strategic stability,” Ambassador Anatoly Antonov told Vesti TV.
PAYBACK IS ‘FIRST STEP’: Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, praised the decision by TransDigm Group to repay the Pentagon for excess profits it made on overpriced spare parts.
“This is a positive first step in recouping the millions of taxpayer dollars that have been lost to waste, fraud and abuse but more needs to be done,” Grassley said in a statement. “My investigation into price-gouging generally and whether TransDigm specifically has systematically taken advantage of taxpayers will continue.”
Grassley was referring to reports that TransDigm Group has agreed to repay the government $16.1 million in excess profits and has already written one check for $11.5 million.
DUNFORD DEFENDS BORDER DEPLOYMENTS: The chairman of the Joint Chiefs has no concerns about the deployment of U.S. troops to assist understaffed border patrol agents along the U.S.-Mexico border.
At his Brookings appearance yesterday, Gen. Dunford ticked off his four criteria for approving deployments:
- Is the mission legal?
- Do the troops have the proper training?
- Do they have the proper capability?
- Do they have clear and unambiguous directions?
“If we’re meeting those four criteria and we are filling a legitimate capacity shortfall of the Department of Homeland Security, then the mission is wholly appropriate and consistent with multiple presidents who have asked the Department of Defense to address shortfalls in the Department of Homeland Security,” Dunford said.
“It’s important to separate the emotion of the border issue and the challenges on the border from the employment of the U.S. military in what is fundamentally a legal and appropriate mission,” he said, adding the mission was having no more effect on readiness than any other mission, including humanitarian relief operations in other nations.
The Rundown
AP: Defense Secretary Nominee Focuses On China Despite Mideast Tensions
Reuters: In Asia, Pentagon Seeks To Separate China Military Talks From Trade War
The Diplomat: Why Is China Sending Top Military Brass to Shangri-La 2019?
Air Force Magazine: Dunford: Service’s Force Structure Plans Need to Focus on Quality Over Quantity
Washington Times: NATO Tackles Growing Russia, China Threat With New Military Strategy, 30-30-30 Plan
Washington Post: Pompeo To Discuss Iran In Europe, Make A Side Trip To Secretive Conference In The Alps
Defense News: Inside America’s Multimillion-Dollar Plan To Get Allies Off Russian Equipment
Bloomberg: With Its Grip On Rare-Earth Minerals, China Can Target U.S. Weaponry In Trade War
Washington Examiner: Turkey frees jailed US citizen who worked for NASA
New York Times: More Than Nuclear Deal Could Lead to Fight With Iran
Washington Post: Soldiers took items home from Vietnam. Decades later, two veterans helped return them.
Calendar
THURSDAY | MAY 30
8:55 a.m. 5000 Seminary Road, Alexandria. Institute for Defense and Government Advancement 2019 Intelligence Analytics Summit, with the theme “Transforming Data Into Actionable Intelligence.” Speakers include: Stacey Dixon, director of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, and Wanda Jones-Heath, deputy chief information security officer and cybersecurity chief of the Air Force. www.idga.org/events-intelligenceanalyticssummit
10 a.m. 529 14th St. N.W. National Press Club Headliners Book Event featuring former Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James discussing her new book, Aim High: Chart Your Course and Find Your Success. www.press.org/events
11:45 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. Hudson Institute discussion on how the Pentagon can best implement cloud and artificial intelligence capabilities to gain the tactical edge in future warfare. Speakers include: Alexander Kott, the chief scientist of the Army Research Laboratory, Lindsey Sheppard, associate fellow at CSIS, and William Schneider, senior fellow at Hudson. www.hudson.org
12:30 p.m. (10:30 a.m. MDT) Falcon Stadium. President Trump delivers commencement address at the U.S. Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs, Colo. www.usafa.edu
1:30 p.m. 1152 15th Street N.W. Center for a New American Security “Fireside Chat” on the FY 2020 defense budget with David Norquist, performing the duties of the deputy secretary of defense. Moderated by Susanna Blume, senior fellow and deputy director, CNAS’s Defense Program. www.cnas.org/events
2 p.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. Atlantic Council event: “Russia’s Resurgence in the Middle East: How Does US Policy Meet the Challenge?” Keynote address by Kathryn Wheelbarger, acting assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs. www.atlanticcouncil.org
TUESDAY | JUNE 4
8:30 a.m. 1777 F Street, N.W. Council on Foreign Relations conversation with Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. Livestreamed at www.cfr.org/event.
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Intelligence and Emerging Threats and Capabilities Subcommittee markup of HR 2500, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2020.” armedservices.house.gov/hearings
Noon. 2212 Rayburn. House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee markup of H R 2500, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2020.” armedservices.house.gov/hearings
1 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee markup of HR 2500, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2020.” armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2:30 p.m. 2212 Rayburn. House Armed Services Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee markup of HR 2500, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2020.” armedservices.house.gov/hearings
3:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee markup of HR 2500, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2020.” armedservices.house.gov/hearings
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I don’t think we ought to be throwing out new technologies and say let’s just do it the way we’ve always done it.”
Sen. Tim Kaine, dismissing President Trump’s call for a return to steam catapults on future aircraft carriers, as quoted by the Virginian-Pilot.
