BLINDSIDED, BETRAYED: President Trump, overruling his advisers and blindsiding the Pentagon, has abruptly reversed course and endorsed Turkey’s imminent offensive against America’s Kurdish allies in northern Syria.
In a statement issued last night, the White House said Trump spoke by phone to Recep Tayyip Erdogan and gave the Turkish President his blessing for his long-threatened military operation against elements of the Kurdish YPG militia that have been among America’s most effective partners in the fight against ISIS.
“Turkey will soon be moving forward with its long-planned operation into Northern Syria,” the statement said, indicating the U.S. would be abandoning a promise to protect its Kurdish allies. “The United States Armed Forces will not support or be involved in the operation, and United States forces, having defeated the ISIS territorial ‘Caliphate,’ will no longer be in the immediate area.”
FAILED ‘SECURITY MECHANISM’: For months the U.S. has been trying to reassure Turkey that joint U.S.-Turkish patrols along the Turkish-Syria border would mitigate any threat from the YPG militia that Erdogan regards as terrorists, and which the U.S. considers its most reliable partner in the ongoing fight against ISIS.
In the past weeks, the U.S. convinced the Kurdish YPG militia in the border region to pull back while the U.S. and Turkey oversaw the dismantling of their defenses. In return the YPG received security guarantees from the U.S. which still has about 1,000 troops in Syria.
As late as a day ago, the Pentagon was insisting the so-called “security mechanism” was “the best path forward,” and the U.S. Eurpean Command announced the plan would proceed with complete transparency.
On Friday, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said he had warned his Turkish counterpart against unilateral military action. “I made very clear to him, and he agreed as well, that we need to make the security mechanism work,” he told reporters.
“Any uncoordinated military operation by Turkey would be of grave concern as it would undermine our shared interest of a secure northeast Syria and the enduring defeat of ISIS,” said Cmdr. Sean Robertson, a Pentagon spokesperson, over the weekend.
PROBLEM SOLVED: But Trump, who impulsively ordered all U.S. troops out of Syria last December and only reluctantly agreed to maintain a troop presence to prevent the slaughter of the Kurds, now argues the Turkish offensive will take the problem off his hands.
And he faults France, Germany, and other European nations for refusing to take back captured ISIS fighters from their countries, which he says is forcing his hand.
“The United States will not hold them for what could be many years and great cost to the United States taxpayer,” the White House statement said. “Turkey will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area captured over the past two years in the wake of the defeat of the territorial ‘Caliphate’ by the United States.”
BLOWBACK: Trump’s original order prompted the resignation of several officials including Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and former special envoy Brett McGurk, who argued against the precipitous move. On twitter McGurk blasted the decision, which he said “demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of anything happening on the ground.”
“The ‘United States’ is not holding any ISIS detainees. They are all being held by the SDF, which Trump just served up to Turkey.” McGurk tweeted. “Turkey has neither the intent, desire, nor capacity to manage 60k detainees in al Hol camp, which State and DoD IGs warn is the nucleus for a resurgent ISIS.”
“Donald Trump is not a Commander-in-Chief. He makes impulsive decisions with no knowledge or deliberation. He sends military personnel into harm’s way with no backing. He blusters and then leaves our allies exposed when adversaries call his bluff or he confronts a hard phone call,” McGurk said.
“Allowing Turkey to move into Northern Syria is one of the most destabilizing moves we can do in the Middle East,” tweeted Arizona Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego, a former Marine who served in Iraq. “The Kurds will never trust America again. They will look for new alliances or Independence to protect themselves.”
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Beginning today your Daily on Defense newsletter has a new editor, who takes on a daunting challenge, namely finding and fixing any typos, grammar mistakes or fact errors I may make in my morning rush to get this out in time for you to read before you start your day. (Her very first decision will be whether to insert an Oxford comma in that last sentence).
Susan Katz Keating comes to the Washington Examiner with stellar credentials. An award-winning investigative reporter, she’s broken stories in People, Time, and Soldier of Fortune magazines, to name a few. Keating is the author of Prisoners of Hope: Exploiting the POW/MIA Myth in America as well as three books for young readers. A perspicacious and peripatetic journalist, she’s just back from a five-year odyssey that had her chasing stories across America in her trusty Jeep, “Shadow.”
A word now from Susan:
FROM THE EDITOR: It’s great to be here on the team with Jamie, whose work I have admired for years! Personally, I believe that ours is the best beat in Washington and beyond. I’ve been immersed in writing about the military since my earliest days in journalism, and am a veteran, myself. I’ve done hands-on museum restoration of hetal metal, including a B-52, and F-102, and an array of tracked vehicles, and have gone into the field in places like GTMO, and Northern Ireland during the Troubles. As for that Oxford comma, I am a sometime fan, but reserve the right to omit, for clarity, as the situation requires.
NORTH KOREA SPIKES NUKE TALKS: The state of U.S.- North Korea nuclear negotiations is such that the two sides can’t even agree if they disagree. The resumption of working level talks in Stockholm collapsed almost as soon as they started when North Korea complained the U.S. came to the table with no new proposals.
“The U.S. side maintained its former stand, seemingly showing that it has brought no new package,” said a statement from the North Korean Foreign Ministry. “The trite stance shown by the delegates of the U.S. side at the negotiations venue made us feel that our expectations were no better than an empty hope and rather increased a doubt as to whether the US truly has a stand to solve the issue.”
THE US BEGS TO DIFFER: In a statement Saturday, the U.S. took issue with the characterization of the talks as a complete failure. “The U.S. brought creative ideas and had good discussions” with the North Koreans negotiators, the State Department said in a statement, insisting the “early comments” from the North Korea delegation “do not reflect the content or the spirit of today’s 8 1/2 hour discussion.”
“The U.S. delegation previewed a number of new initiatives that would allow us to make progress in each of the four pillars of the Singapore joint statement,” said the statement by spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus. “At the conclusion of our discussions, the United States proposed to accept the invitation of our Swedish hosts to return to Stockholm to meet again in two weeks time.”
North Korea immediately rejected the follow-up meeting saying, “We have no intention to hold such sickening negotiations,” and giving the U.S. three months to change its approach. “The fate of the future DPRK-US dialogue depends on the U.S. attitude, and the end of this year is its deadline.”
IRAQ FRAGMENTING: Iraq’s fragile democracy is teetering on the breaking point, with more than 100 Iraqis killed and more than 6,000 wounded as anti-government demonstrations spread into a second week.
In six days of violent protests 51 public buildings and eight political party headquarters have been burned, and protesters and journalists say Iraqi security forces, including snipers, have fired on demonstrators, who are protesting corruption, unemployment, and lack of government services.
ISIS PLOTTING BREAKOUT: The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War warns that ISIS is working to get its fighters out of detention facilities across Syria and Iraq.
“Some ISIS members have paid bribes to guards in order to buy their freedom. Others have rioted or mounted small-scale escape attempts from at least four detention facilities in Syria and Iraq since September 2018,” write John Dunford and Brandon Wallace. “ISIS is likely preparing more coordinated and sophisticated operations to free its detained members in Iraq and Syria.
The assessment, made before Turkey announced its planned assault, said the network of makeshift detention facilities spread across Northern Syria were likely at greatest risk.
ESPER: KEEP US OUT OF IT: Secretary Esper was questioned by reporters Friday about what he knew about the delay of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine and when he knew it, but he steadfastly refused to be drawn into what is the hottest political issue in Washington.
“I’m not going to add any fuel to the fire at this point in time. Congress is looking into this obviously, an inquiry’s underway and we’ll deal with this, and answer all these questions in due course,” Esper told reporters who traveled with him to Ohio and Kentucky. “But right now I’m trying to keep DoD out of this issue; it’s a very political issue.”
“It’s my aim is to keep the department apolitical,” he added.
The Rundown
THE RUNDOWN:
AP: Taliban meet US peace envoy for first time since ‘dead’ deal
Washington Post: Marines disciplined at San Diego boot camp for abuse and racism targeting recruits, documents show
Task & Purpose: Senior US diplomat privately warns that Iraqi prime minister’s resignation ‘appears inevitable’ amid deadly protests
New York Times: Thousands in Hong Kong Defy Ban on Masks, and Protests Turn Violent
Reuters: Taiwan Says China Is An ‘Authoritarian’ Threat In The Pacific
Reuters: Exclusive: Iran Not ‘Drawing Back’ Militarily After Saudi Attack – U.S. Admiral
Washington Post: Love and War: I owe my new life to my Marine husband’s hideous death
Washington Examiner: Army specialist with heroic claim of saving children during El Paso shooting arrested for desertion
Air Force Magazine: DODIG: Not All USAFA Sexual Assault Cases Were Reported to Congress
Virginian-Pilot: Huntington Ingalls Plans To Fight Pending Allegations Of Falsified Sub Tests
Air Force Magazine: USAF Hits 2019 Personnel Goals, Facing Retention Ripple Effects
Defense One: U.S. Customs Officer Harasses Defense One Journalist at Dulles Airport
Navy Times: Grizzly Adams Begone! Navy Ends Permanent No-Shave Chits
Washington Post: The ‘Wall of Spies’: A new museum you can’t visit dedicated to American turncoats
Calendar
MONDAY | OCTOBER 7
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “A Vision for the Future of Missile Defense,” with Vice Adm. Jon Hill, director of the Missile Defense Agency; and Thomas Karako, director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project. Streamed live at: https://www.csis.org/events
4:45 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion with former CIA Director Gen. David Petraeus and Eliot Cohen, dean of SAIS. https://sais.jhu.edu/news-press
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 8
8:30 a.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Md. — TechConnect Defense Innovation Summit and Expo, with James “Hondo” Geurts, assistant Navy secretary for research, development and acquisition; Lisa Sanders, science and technology director at the U.S. Special Operations Command; Brad Chedister, CTO of DefenseWerx; Air Force Capt. Steven Lauver, Technology Accelerators director at AFWERX; Troy Warshel, operational energy resilience director in the Office of the Assistant Defense Secretary for Sustainment; retired Marine Corps Col. Lawrence Pleis, chief of the U.S. Central Command’s Programs and Assessments Office (J49) Logistics and Engineering; Jennifer Rocha, executive director for corporate, federal and defense programs at TechConnect; and Stacey Cummings, principal deputy assistant Defense secretary for acquisition enablers. https://events.techconnect.org/DTCFall/dag.html
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — The Atlantic Council, the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, and the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, conference on “New Strategic Visions and Power Competition in the Middle East,” with former U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Joseph Votel, Italian Ambassador to the United States Armando Varicchio, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker, and Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs director of policy planning Oleg Stepanov. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
10 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room — National Guard Bureau Chief Gen. Joseph Lengyel, Air National Guard Readiness Center Commander Maj. Gen. Steven Nordhaus, Vermont NG AG Brig. Gen. Gregory Knight, host media roundtable on F-35s joining guard inventory. (tentative)
10:30 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. N.E. — Heritage Foundation discussion on “No Alternative to Unity: Transatlantic Security Beyond 2020,” with Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu; and James Jay Carafano, vice president of the Heritage Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy https://www.heritage.org/europe/event
11:15 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Former Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson delivers keynote remarks at the Center for Strategic and International Studies forum on “An Ocean of Change: How Climate Change is Upending our View of Maritime Sustainability, Sovereignty, and Security.” https://www.csis.org/events/ocean-change
12 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Woodrow Wilson Center book discussion on “Nuclear Crises with North Korea and Iran: From Transformational to Transactional Diplomacy,” with author Robert Litwak, director of international security studies at WWC; former Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif., director, president and CEO of WWC; and David Sanger, national security correspondent at the New York Times. Streamed live at https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 9
8:30 a.m. 201 Waterfront Street, National Harbor, Md. — Deputy Assistant Air Force Secretary for Operational Energy Roberto Guerrero; Daryl Haegley, principal cyber adviser to the defense secretary; and John Williams, innovation director at the Small Business Administration Office of Investment and Innovation, deliver keynote remarks at the Defense TechConnect Innovation Summit and Expo. https://events.techconnect.org/DTCFall/dag.html
8:30 a.m. 300 First Street S.E. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies discussion on “Launch Ranges,” with Air Force Brig. Gen. Douglas Schiess, commander of the 45th Space Wing. http://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/
12:45 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies forum on “Trends in Russia-Ukraine Relations and the Role of the West,” with former Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor David Kramer, professor at Florida International University; and Charles Gati, professor at SAIS. https://sais.jhu.edu/
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 10
8:45 a.m. 1615 H St. N.W. — U.S. Chamber of Commerce and FICO Cybersecurity Summit, with Acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan; Assistant Attorney General for National Security John Demers; and Tonya Ugoretz, deputy assistant director of the FBI’s Cyber Division. https://www.uschamber.com/event
2 p.m. — Government Executive holds a web event “Citizens, Soldiers, and Staff: How Digital Transformation is Reshaping the DOD and Civilian Agency Experience,” with David Beirne, director of the Defense Department’s Federal Voting Assistance Program; Kevin Coleman, chief of customer contact operations in the Citizenship and Immigration Services IRIS Directorate; Martha Dorris, founder of Dorris Consulting International; and Cary Cusumano, CX design strategist at Verizon. https://www.govexec.com/feature/verizon-viewcast/
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 11
11 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy. — Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies discussion on “The Future of RAF – USAF Cooperation and Integration,” with RAF Air Chief Marshal Mike Wigston. http://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The Kurds will never trust America again,”
Arizona Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego, a former Marine, tweeting about President Trump’s decision to endorse Turkey’s offensive aimed at America’s Kurdish allies in northern Syria.
