Trump risks popularity in Israel with Netanyahu pardon push

TEL AVIV, Israel – President Donald Trump is risking his popularity in Israel as he publicly appeals for a pardon for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump last month made a formal submission to Israeli President Isaac Herzog to pardon Netanyahu, currently on trial for corruption, after an earlier informal appeal on social media. Netanyahu has previously denied the charges.

Trump’s appeal to Herzog represents extraordinary interference in another country’s domestic politics and judicial system, potentially undermining his popularity in Israel gained while riding a high after brokering the ceasefire with Hamas in October.

Meanwhile, criticism of Netanyahu, which subsided in the immediate aftermath of the Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attacks, has started to increase in reaction to accusations he was prolonging Israel’s war against Hamas for his own political gain before his reelection campaign next year. That is not to mention complaints about Netanyahu’s own appeals to his more conservative Orthodox Jewish supporters, who are exempted from being drafted into the Israel Defense Forces, despite the conflict.

“He’s a wartime prime minister who’s a hero. How do you not give a pardon?” Trump said on Monday before his meeting with Netanyahu at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. “It’s a very hard thing not to do it. I spoke to the president and he tells me it’s on its way.”

Herzog quickly dismissed Trump’s claim, saying the pair have not spoken since Trump’s formal submission.

During a press briefing in Tel Aviv, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel downplayed political concerns regarding Trump’s intervention, repeating that Israel has “never had a better friend in the White House,” and that Netanyahu and Trump “are extremely close.”

“Israel is very divided on that question,” Haskel told the Washington Examiner. “It’s been extremely difficult during times of war to try and navigate through that.”

Haskel, who described “half the country” as considering Netanyahu’s trial to be a “political prosecution,” contended it could have been postponed until after the war so the prime minister could “properly function” during the conflict.

“At the same time, I also understand the other side as well, where they feel justice has to prevail, it has to be determined by the legal system,” she said. “It’s important to see through some of this process.”

The diplomat added, “I trust the president of Israel. He’s been getting fire from both ends, and I truly trust his judgment on that issue. For me, whatever the president of Israel will choose and will decide will be accepted. And I think that the majority, not the extreme, both of the extremes, I think the majority of Israel truly trust him on this matter.”

Tamar Hermann, academic director of the Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research, a Tel Aviv-based think tank, pointed reporters to one of her own polls conducted in May, which found that 42% of respondents trusted Herzog, while 26% did not.

To underscore the difference of opinion in Israel related to Netanyahu amid the Israel-Hamas war, Hermann pointed to a separate poll from September, before the ceasefire, which found that 45% of respondents wanted Netanyahu to “accept responsibility” for Oct. 7 and “resign immediately,” while another 19% hoped he would “accept responsibility, but resign only after the end of the [conflict].” 

An additional 18% wanted the prime minister to “accept responsibility, but not resign,” and yet another 13% did not think he needed to accept responsibility or resign.

“This is an issue that Netanyahu knows better than I do, and this is why he is calling for a commission of inquiry, but not a state commission of inquiry,” the pollster said. “A state commission of inquiry cannot force the prime minister to resign, but it can, of course, advise you to resign.”

Regarding the pardoning of Netanyahu, Hermann told the Washington Examiner that 52% opposed it, while 43% supported it in a November poll.

But with Netanyahu having to call an election by Oct. 27, members of the prime minister’s Likud Party are standing by him.

“We have a very talented prime minister that is a diplomat and influencing the public opinion in the States and many other things,” MK Amit Halevi told the Washington Examiner.

In the United States, Elliott Abrams, a former President George W. Bush deputy national security adviser and Trump special representative for Iran and Venezuela, called Trump’s appeal for Herzog to pardon Netanyahu “unprecedented.”

Abrams, chairman of the Vandenberg Coalition, differentiated between Trump’s decision to appeal for a pardon and the U.S. interfering in another country’s judicial system to advocate on behalf of Americans. 

“Why did Trump do it? He has no respect for such traditional norms; he believes, as do many Israelis, that the prosecutions are political in nature, he believes this is analogous to what he went through himself, and Bibi is someone he knows well and admires,” he told the Washington Examiner. “Certainly, the request is one that shows the depth and strength of their relationship.”

American Enterprise Institute U.S.-Israel fellow Daniel Samet agreed that, to Trump, the charges against Netanyahu “are lawfare by liberal elites to bring down their political opponent.” 

“Sound familiar? Trump sees much of himself in Bibi and wants to help him out of his legal bind,” Samet told the Washington Examiner.

Heritage Foundation Middle East and North Africa senior policy analyst Daniel Flesch continued: “For the president to weigh in on this issue reflects the strength of their relationship and his desire to keep the prime minister in a position where the two leaders can continue to work together on important issues for America’s national security interests in the region.”

Council on Foreign Relations Middle East and Africa studies senior fellow Steven Cook similarly agreed that it is unprecedented for a U.S. president to try to intervene in Israel’s judicial system. Still, he argued that it is not unprecedented for the U.S. to attempt to influence Israeli politics. 

“In the early 1990s, President George H. W. Bush implicitly helped Yitzhak Rabin get elected when he put a chill on U.S.-Israel relations,” Cook told the Washington Examiner.

Cook predicted “transactional” Trump will want Netanyahu “to play ball on any number of issues, but most likely moving forward with his 20-point peace plan” between Israel and Hamas “in return.”

“That puts Netanyahu in a bind,” he said. “He wants the help, but unless Hamas disarms and is not part of Gaza’s governance going forward, the Israelis will resist the plan.”

Trump met with Netanyahu on Monday to discuss phase two of his peace plan, which includes a temporary transitional government and an international stabilization force in Gaza, in addition to Israel’s withdrawal from the territory.

Israel has reservations about proceeding to phase two when phase one has not been completed, namely, one body of an Oct. 1 Israeli hostage remains in Gaza, and Hamas, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon, have not disarmed.

Israeli, too, has been reluctant to receive Turkey’s help with the stabilization force because of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s previous defense of Hamas, regardless of Trump’s own strong relationship with him, as Israel strikes Syria while Trump assists the new Syrian president and former jihadist Ahmed al Sharaa.

Trump, who conceded before their meeting that Netanyahu “can be very difficult on occasion,” reportedly implored the prime minister during their sit-down to stop Israel’s settlement expansion in the West Bank, another interference in Israeli domestic politics.

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Nevertheless, Netanyahu, who awarded Trump the Israel Prize during their post-meeting press conference, is returning to Israel with Trump’s appeal for a pardon and his apparent endorsement of an attack against Iran’s ballistic missile program.

“If you had a different kind of personality, if you had a weak person or a stupid person, and there are plenty of both of them, you would not have had success, and you might not have Israel,” Trump said during the press conference with Netanyahu. “He’s got a little bit of love-hate more than I do over there, but you know what? Even the haters have a lot of respect for him.”

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