PUTIN’S NATO NIGHTMARE: In a news conference in Moscow after meeting with the leader of NATO ally Hungary, Russian President Vladimir Putin complained his demands are being ignored and that the West is trying to draw him into conflict as an excuse to levy crippling sanctions against the Russian economy.
“Their main task is to contain the development of Russia. Ukraine is simply a tool to achieve this goal. They could draw us into some kind of armed conflict and force their allies in Europe to impose the very tough sanctions that are being talked about in the United States today,” Putin said. “Or they could draw Ukraine into NATO, set up strike weapons systems there and encourage some people to resolve the issue of Donbas or Crimea by force, and still draw us into an armed conflict.”
It was a tacit admission of his fear that if Ukraine were ever to become a member of NATO, Putin would be unable to threaten the former Soviet republic the way it’s doing now, surrounding its neighbor with more than 130,000 troops with the potential to invade and take more Ukrainian territory.
“Let us imagine that Ukraine is a NATO member and is stuffed with weapons and there are state of the art missile systems just like in Poland and Romania, who will stop it from unleashing operations in Crimea, let alone Donbas?” Putin said. “Let us imagine that Ukraine is a NATO member and ventures such a combat operation. Do we have to fight with the NATO bloc? Has anyone thought anything about it? It seems not.”
PUTIN COMPLAINS ABOUT WESTERN RESPONSE TO ULTIMATUM IN FIRST REMARKS ON UKRAINE CRISIS
‘WE KNOW WHO THE FOX IS’: The White House roundly rejected Putin’s suggestion that Russia’s security is threatened by Ukraine or NATO, which is a defensive alliance.
“When the fox is screaming from the top of the hen house that he’s scared of the chickens, which is essentially what they’re doing, that fear isn’t reported as a statement of fact,” said press secretary Jen Psaki at yesterday’s White House briefing. “And as you watch President Putin screaming about the fear of Ukraine and the Ukrainians, that should not be reported as a statement of fact. We know who the fox is in this case.”
Meanwhile, the Pentagon continues to monitor the steady buildup of Russian forces on Ukraine’s border, including increased logistics and sustainment capability such as aviation support, certainly medical support.
“That does include, you know, field hospitals and doctors and nurses and you know, the kinds of things you would need to do to be able to medically care for troops in the field,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby. “Now, is that alone all by itself as some sort of tripwire indicator or, you know, causing alarms to go off that an invasion is imminent? Not necessarily.”
“We believe that he has enough capability to move now if he wants to. And he continues to add to that capability and those options,” Kirby said. “And he could, depending on what his goal is here and what he wants to do, he could move imminently — at any time.”
PSAKI: BIDEN OPEN TO DIRECT TALKS WITH PUTIN
HUNGARY HUNGRY FOR RUSSIAN GAS: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made clear going into his meeting with Putin that his primary goal was securing a long-term deal with Moscow for more cut-rate natural gas, and Putin seems ready to accommodate him.
“For many years, Russia has provided Hungary with failsafe fuel supplies, covering about 55% of Hungary’s oil consumption and over 80% of gas,” Putin said. “Russia supplies Hungary with natural gas under long-term contracts that were extended last year to 2036. Thus, Hungarian consumers can buy gas at prices below the market spot prices that have substantially increased in Europe recently.”
Orban, who has forged close ties with Russia, walked a fine line, praising Putin while saying his security concerns are legitimate and need to be taken seriously.
But his crowing about his sweetheart gas deal with Moscow underscored how Putin can use cheap natural gas as a weapon to keep NATO divided.
“In Western Europe, the price of gas and electricity has increased about three-fold. That’s for the households. So this is a serious challenge for the families. There’s one exception where this didn’t happen, and this is Hungary,” Orban said after his five-hour meeting with Putin.
“In Hungary, for many years, we have been introducing a decrease of the cost of utilities in households, and that’s because of gas that is in cheap supply to the Hungarians,” Orban said through a translator. “And if there is no Russian gas, then we are not able to provide this.”
OPINION: MR. ORBAN GOES TO MOSCOW
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HAPPENING TODAY: In a hearing that was rescheduled from Jan. 26, a special closed joint hearing of the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees will hear from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on “U.S. Policy on Afghanistan.”
The classified hearing comes as Axios is reporting that leaked notes from a White House Situation Room meeting “shed new light on just how unprepared the Biden administration was to evacuate Afghan nationals” on the day before Kabul fell.
The notes from a meeting of the “Deputies Small Group” show that White House officials were still scrambling to finalize their plans on the afternoon of Aug. 14, just one day before the Taliban took control of the Afghan capital.
“For example, they’d just decided they needed to notify local Afghan staff ‘to begin to register their interest in relocation to the United States,’” Axios reported. “The meeting was held from 3:30 – 4:30 p.m, on the afternoon of Aug. 14, Washington time. At that moment, Taliban fighters were descending upon Kabul.”
‘THE BETRAYAL’: The latest revelations come the same week that the Atlantic published a lengthy exposé on the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan that it said “added moral injury to military failure,” and the United Nations reported credible accounts of murders, disappearances, and detentions of Afghan officials and community leaders.
In the Atlantic article headlined “The Betrayal,” author George Packer wrote: “The end was always going to be messy. But through its failures, the administration dramatically compressed the evacuation in both time and space. It created a panic to squeeze perishable human beings through the dangerous openings of a fortress before they closed forever.”
In an appearance on CNN Monday, Packer said, “There was no need for children to be trampled to death outside the gates of the airport. There was no need for U.S. Marines to be blown up by a suicide bomber as they tried to pull people out of sewage canals. All of that was a result of the failure to plan and to carry out evacuations when there was time.”
“The organization Veterans for American Ideals estimates that 90% of SIV applicants, that is to say those who worked for Americans during the war, did not get out, are still there,” Packer said. “And right now, the numbers are terrible because … since August 31st [evacuations] have ground to a near halt.”
“I mean, there are tens of thousands of Afghans who have applied for either refugee status or what’s called humanitarian parole, which is to be brought into the United States on a temporary basis, and are waiting for applications to be reviewed, and very few are making it through … in the single-digit percentages.”
UN CITES ‘CREDIBLE ALLEGATIONS’ THAT TALIBAN HAVE KILLED 100 FROM OLD REGIME
HELP FOR BURN PIT VICTIMS: The Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee takes up the “Health Care for Burn Pit Veterans Act” at 3 p.m. today, but Florida Sen. Marco Rubio says in its current form, the legislation is fatally flawed.
“Specifically, the bill fails to provide a presumption of service connection for key ailments afflicting many veterans who were exposed to toxic burn pits in the line of duty,” Rubio said in a statement ahead of this afternoon’s hearing. “Even if the bill were to become law, the burden would still be on veterans to prove their illness is a direct result of their deployment to receive critical benefits.”
Rubio is pushing a bipartisan alternative bill, the “Presumptive Benefits for War Fighters Exposed to Burn Pits and Other Toxins Act,” which is co-sponsored by Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Rep. Raul Ruiz, as well as fellow Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick.
“Veterans who are suffering from debilitating illnesses and dying because they cannot get care deserve better than half measures,” Rubio said. “We can’t trust the VA bureaucracy to get this right, and we don’t need any more excuses. What we need to do is pass a bill with presumptive benefits.”
DEFENSE DEPARTMENT TO APPEAL HAWAII’S ORDER TO DRAIN CONTAMINATED WATER TANK
WARREN CALLS BS ON ‘CONTROLLED UNCLASSIFIED INFORMATION’: Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has fired off letters to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his chief weapons tester complaining that the latest annual report to Congress by the Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation restricts information that used to be public.
Many details about the performance of expensive weapons programs are being withheld and labeled “controlled unclassified information,” which Warren says seems to be more about hiding poor performance and cost overruns rather than protecting national security.
“This office has been able to release an unclassified version of this report for nearly 40 years, and it is simply not credible to think it cannot and should not continue to do so,” Warren continued in her letters. “This is a continuation of an unacceptable trend at the Department to reduce the public’s access to basic information essential for accountability. Relegating the findings of your office to be categorized as ‘controlled unclassified information’ will fundamentally undermine its ability to accomplish its mission.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Defense Secretary Austin stands firm on vaccine requirement for National Guard
Washington Examiner: Putin complains about Western response to ultimatum in first remarks on Ukraine crisis
Washington Examiner: Psaki: Biden open to direct talks with Putin
Washington Examiner: Twenty years after Daniel Pearl’s death, the fight for justice continues
Washington Examiner: Defense Department to appeal Hawaii’s order to drain contaminated water tank
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Mr. Orban goes to Moscow
Washington Examiner: Opinion: As Biden hesitates, Poland joins anti-air Ukraine airlift
Bloomberg: Pentagon Abuses Label to Hide Bad Weapons News, Warren Says
AP: Putin offers more talks with West to defuse Ukraine tensions
Washington Post: Putin wants to push NATO away from Russia. Instead, he’s getting more NATO troops on his border.
Washington Post: As Putin heads to Beijing, Russia and China’s stronger ties are a headache for the U.S.
CNN: In Eastern Ukraine They Don’t Expect An Invasion, But People Are Watching And Waiting
19fortyfive.com: Sweden Is Beefing Up Its Defenses Thanks to Russia (NATO Membership Next?)
New York Times: U.S. Sends Top Cybersecurity Official To Prepare NATO For Russian Attacks
Reuters: U.S. To Send Fighter Jets To Assist UAE After Houthi Attacks
Defense One: Military Pilots’ DNA May Hold Key to What’s Causing Their Prostate Cancers
Air Force Magazine: First ‘Integrated Warfighting Network’ to Go Live in 2022 for Troops Serving in the Field
Business Insider: To Dodge China’s Missiles, the US Air Force is Spreading Out to More Bases. Now it’s Looking for Ways to Defend Them.
AP: Yemen’s Houthis add to Biden’s foreign policy frustrations
AP: N. Korean leader Kim attends concert glorifying his power
Asia Times: U.S. Battling To Swing Thailand Away From China
Al Arabiya: Largest Middle Eastern Maritime Exercise Kicks Off In Bahrain
Air Force Magazine: F-35 JPO Finishes First Phase in Overhauling Logistics System
Task & Purpose: Veterans donated to a woman who said she was a Marine combat veteran dying of cancer. It was a lie
19fortyfive.com: Spetsnaz: Why Russia’s ‘Delta Force’ Are Some of the Best Soldiers on Earth
19fortyfive.com: Why Russia Could Invade Ukraine at Any Moment
19fortyfive.com: America Isn’t Ready for Russia’s Battlefield Nuclear Weapons
Washington Post: Opinion: My generation of Ukrainians has fought hard for democracy. We stand ready once again.
Foreign Affairs: Rep. Mike Gallagher: Taiwan Can’t Wait
Forbes: Opinion: Oshkosh Unveils Hybrid-Electric Joint Light Tactical Vehicle That Matches/Surpasses Performance Of Original
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 2
9 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion: “Cyber Activism: The Secret Role of Elves in Countering Hybrid Operations,” Nad’a Kovalcikova, senior analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies’ Transnational Security Portfolio; Daniel Hegedus, visiting fellow at GMFUS; and Adela Kleckova, fellow at GMFUS https://www.gmfus.org/event/cyber-activism
10 a.m. CVC-200 Capitol Visitor Center — Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees closed hearing on “U.S. Policy on Afghanistan,” with secret testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin CLOSED, no webcast https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
11 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual book discussion on “Seeking the Bomb: Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation,” with author Vipin Narang, professor of nuclear security and political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Ariel Levite, former principal deputy director general for policy at the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission; Eliza Gheorghe, assistant professor at Bilkent University; and Fiona Cunningham, assistant professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania https://carnegieendowment.org
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion with Air Force Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost, commander of U.S. Transportation Command. https://www.csis.org/events/conversation-gen-van-ovost
2 p.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “Keeping the Spotlight on Hong Kong,” Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla.; Dennis Kwok, senior fellow at Harvard University; and Nathan Law, former legislator and democratic activist https://www.heritage.org/asia/event/keeping-the-spotlight-hong-kong
2 p.m. — SETA Foundation at Washington D.C. virtual discussion: “Ukraine Crisis: Implications for the International System and U.S. Leadership,” with Charles Kupchan, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; Steven Pifer, nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Arms Control and Non-proliferation Initiative; Kilic Kanat, research director at SETA; and Kadir Ustun, executive director of SETA https://setadc.org/events/
2:30 p.m. 562 Dirksen — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing on “Russia’s Assault on Ukraine and the International Order: Assessing and Bolstering the Western Response,” with Michael Carpenter, U.S. permanent representative to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe; Fiona Hill, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe; retired Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, chair in strategic studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor, vice president of the U.S. Institute of Peace https://www.youtube.com/user/HelsinkiCommission
4 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual event: “Ukraine in Crisis: How the United States Can Support its Ally,” with Sens. Jeanne Shaheen D-N.H., and Rob Portman R-Ohio, who led a bipartisan delegation to Ukraine in January. https://www.csis.org/events/ukraine-crisis-how-united-states-can-support-its-ally
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 3
9 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual MEI-CENTCOM conference with Marine Corps Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of CENTCOM, https://www.mei.edu/events/2nd-mei-centcom-annual-conference
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Russia-Ukraine conflict and implications to Turkey,” with Debra Cagan, energy fellow at the Transatlantic Leadership Network’s Mediterranean Basin, Middle East, and Gulf Initiative; Yevgeniya Gaber, senior fellow at Carleton University’s Center in Modern Turkish Studies; and Can Kasapoglu, director of the Center for Economic and Foreign Policy Research Security and Defense Studies Program https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/russia-ukraine-conflict
10 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing on “Poland’s Leadership of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in a Time of Crisis,” with Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss.; and Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau https://www.youtube.com/user/HelsinkiCommission
10 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion: “Ideas and Priorities for NATO’s Future – Presenting the NATO Shadow Strategic Concept,” with former NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow, fellow at the Atlantic Council; Julian Lindley-French, visiting research fellow at National Defense University and founder of the Alphen Group; and Nico Lange, defense analyst at the German Ministry of Defense https://www.gmfus.org/event/ideas-and-priorities-natos-future
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies book launch: Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, with author Amy Zegart, senior fellow, the Hoover Institution and Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies; and Jake Harrington, intelligence fellow, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/book-launch-spies-lies-and-algorithms
11:30 a.m. — Institute for National Security Studies International Conference virtual panel discussion: “Will the U.S. Abandon the Middle East?” with Dana Stroul, deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East https://www.inss.org.il/event/annual-conference-15/
12 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion on “the dual threats from Russia and China and the importance of strengthening NATO,” with Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
12:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies a virtual discussion: “Turkey, Russia and the Struggle for Power in the Middle East and North Africa,” with Marc Pierini, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
2 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “How the United States Can Help Defend Ukraine,” with former U.S. Army Europe Commander Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges; and Michael Doran, senior fellow at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/2062-virtual-event
5 p.m. — Institute of World Politics virtual discussion: U.S. Diplomacy as a Force for Good,” with former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale, diplomatic fellow at the Wilson Center https://www.iwp.edu/events/webinar-u-s-diplomacy-as-a-force-for-good/
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 4
8 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Evolving Maritime Issues in the Indo-Pacific,” with Yurika Ishii, associate professor at the National Defense Academy of Japan; James Kraska, chair of the U.S. Naval War College Center for International Law; Raul Pedrozo, professor at the U.S. Naval War College Center for International Law; Susumu Takai, president of the Security Strategy Research Institute of Japan; and Kathleen Walsh, associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College https://www.stimson.org/event/evolving-maritime-issues
2 p.m. — Institute for Corean-American Studies virtual ICAS Winter Symposium on “The Korean Peninsula Issues and U.S. National Security” with former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, chairman of the Foundation for American Security & Freedom. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/icas-winter-symposium-special-tickets-247390560827
2:30 p.m. — Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance virtual discussion on “Implications of the First Combat Intercept of THAAD,” with John Rood, former under secretary of defense for policy; retired Lt. Gen. Jon Thomas, former deputy commander, U.S. Pacific Air Forces; retired Col. Alan Wiernicki, former commander, 11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade; retired Col. David Shank, former commander, 10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command; and Riki Ellison, chairman and founder, Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance https://www.youtube.com/watch
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 8
2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel Hearing: “Military Personnel Talent Management Modernization and the Effects of Legacy Policies,” with Army Lt. Gen. Gary Brito, deputy chief of staff, G-1; Vice Adm. John Nowell, chief of naval personnel; Air Force Lt. Gen. Brian Kelly, deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel, and services; Marine Lt. Gen. David Ottignon, deputy commandant, manpower and reserve affairs; and Patricia Mulcahy, deputy chief of space operations for personnel https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual conversation on “Army priorities for 2022 and beyond,” with Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; and Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Defense Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-fireside-chat
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 16
All day — A two-day meeting of allied defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“When the fox is screaming from the top of the hen house that he’s scared of the chickens, which is essentially what they’re doing, that fear isn’t reported as a statement of fact. And as you watch President Putin screaming about the fear of Ukraine and the Ukrainians, that should not be reported as a statement of fact. We know who the fox is in this case.”
White House press secretary Jen Psaki.
