Capitalism works. Profits drive economic growth, and higher prices incentivize increased production of otherwise scarce goods.
A year ago, the United States Energy Information Administration forecasted that U.S. crude oil production for 2026 would average 13.3 million to 13.5 million barrels per day. Later in 2025, driven by stronger-than-expected output, the EIA raised its 2026 forecast to 13.8 million barrels a day. Recent EIA data show U.S. producers responding to higher oil prices caused by the war in Iran with sharply higher output. The EIA now forecasts 2027 production at 14.3 million barrels a day, setting yet another all-time record. Weekly numbers already confirm a rapid expansion, with the active rig count rising after years of decline and daily production averaging 13.9 million barrels over the four-week period ending Sept. 11.
