Thirty years ago, Wayne Smith, the former chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, argued in a 1996 essay that Cuba might follow something resembling Spain’s path under Francisco Franco. Economic liberalization would create new interests, those interests would demand political representation, and the system would evolve into something else. It was a plausible argument. It was also wrong.

Cuba did change, but the political opening never followed. The regime permitted enough economic freedom to relieve pressure and restricted it whenever that freedom threatened political control. This week, Washington made clear it will not wait another 30 years.

Recommended Stories

Cuba’s crisis is closer, and more dangerous, than Washington thinks

Cuba is the big loser in Maduro’s capture

Cuba’s reckoning: The anatomy of a regime in collapse