What will the electorate look like in 2026?

As Election Day approaches, pollsters spend a lot of time trying to figure out who is going to vote and who will stay home. Public pollsters are tightening their screening techniques, moving from all-adult samples to registered voters and likely voters, using lists of actual voters and their own models to tell us what they think the 2026 electorate will look like.

The task is crucial for pollsters because when people are asked about voting, many people respond, “Of course I’m going to vote.” In an early September CBS News/YouGov poll of registered voters, 78% told the pollsters they would definitely vote in November, and another 12% said they probably would. In the last off-year election, 46% of eligible voters turned out.