Illegal immigration, sidelined by the so-called “Trump effect” in the past year, is likely to surge 70 percent this year as undocumented aliens try to get into the United States before the president’s border wall is constructed and to take advantage of the booming economy, according to a leading expert.
“We forecast total apprehensions and inadmissables across the southwest U.S. border at 590,000 for calendar year 2018. This would be the second highest year since 2010,” said Steven Kopits, president of Princeton Policy Advisors in New Jersey.
The immigration expert added, “Calendar year 2017 saw 341,000 apprehensions plus inadmissables, according to U.S. Customs and Border Patrol statistics. Thus, we are forecasting an approximately 70 percent increase over last year’s levels, which were unusually depressed owing to the ‘Trump effect’ during his first few months in office.”
President Trump has touted his efforts to enforce laws barring illegal immigration. Initially, his policies scared some from trying to enter the U.S. illegally.
In his latest analysis, Kopits predicted a capture rate of about 50 percent. He explained:
“Interdiction rates are believed in the 40-55 percent range, suggesting that total attempted crossings will amount to 1.06 – 1.46 million for the calendar year, with approximately 475,000 – 875,000 of these proving successful.
“I am personally inclined to favor a lower number, say, 550,000 successful crossings, with the undocumented population likely showing a net gain for the year, notwithstanding ICE efforts.”
A couple new elements are driving the surge, he said. Immigrants are eager to get a share of the economy and they aren’t as afraid of Trump.
He wrote told us:
With the ‘Trump effect’ in full force, crossings collapsed into April of last year. However, by April, migrants were getting the sense that Trump wasn’t the end of the world, and crossings began to recover, returning to more typical levels by November of last year.
Our forecast for 2018 is driven by a few different factors. First, there is ordinary traffic. Second, there are those who deferred in 2017 who will cover over in 2018, most likely in the first half of the year. Third, the US economy is doing really well, and migrants always come for the jobs. Thus, economic conditions alone should inspire a robust response from migrants this year. Put it all together, and we should have a pretty strong year for illegal immigration in 2018, as I point out, probably the second highest after 2016 this decade.
